Welcome to the table for the.

Friday, April 24th, 2026 installment of Market Plus.

Joining us now is Dan Hueber.

Hello, Dan.

>> Hello.

>> Do you write the Hueber report?

Are you familiar with it?

>> I am familiar with it.

Yeah, I think I read it every day.

>> There is an entry from 423.

So the day before we taped this and I would like to enter into the record something that the Huber report wrote.

>> Be interesting hearing this.

>> The primary function of the market is to assess the information available and attempt to come to some semblance of what a fair value is.

This should incorporate the existing supply demand, picture potential changes in said supply or demand.

And of course, the uncertainty of those changes taking place.

Or in other words, risk.

That was the second line, third line of your newsletter yesterday.

Clearly something's on your mind.

What is it?

>> Well, I think that when you just look at the standard supply demand picture as we know it today, there's nothing that would get the market to rally very much.

Yet we've been continually working higher, particularly in the wheat to a lesser extent in new crop corn and even a lesser extent new crop soybeans.

But I think the market's really at this point.

All right.

We know the supply demand numbers.

Now we have to assess the new risks.

Risks excuse.

>> Me risk.

>> Risk that we're incorporating into the market.

The unknown of is fertilizer price really going to affect the amount of fertilizer applied this year.

Are we going to see any acreage shifts.

And of course the the million dollar question, what's the summer weather going to be?

And so I think that would explain why we have in face of really not much other news out there that, you know, why we have seen prices try to climb back up.

Now, granted, with the exception of Kansas City wheat, we haven't gone any higher than we have already earlier this year.

But we're kind of sitting on that edge.

And I think if we get a little bit of a weather snafu, sure, that would be the element that could take us a little bit higher.

>> Are the commodity markets insulated from Iran's headlines?

Other than the cost of production is going up, but the market doesn't usually always seem to factor that in.

>> Well.

>> I don't think insulated in the respect that markets are much more attuned to renewable fuels again and again that had had and not just domestically, but worldwide.

You know, that had really kind of fallen out of favor, out of vogue.

And I think you really kind of reignited that interest again, but not not just in renewable ethanol or renewable diesel, but in solar and wind, you know, all of those things that have been Pooh poohed now for the last year and a half, two years have have become back to the forefront.

And I think we could start seeing investments move back into those sectors.

Granted, that's at this point in time, we haven't been there long enough to say, boy, we're going to really up the capacity of biofuel production in this country or up the capacity of ethanol.

But, you know, these people are talking about it again.

So it's psychologically it's been a bit of a boost.

>> In ways that a consumer can pay less at.

The pump is a winner at the ballot box.

For some people.

>> Very true, very true.

>> Let's talk about the government for a little bit.

USDA yes, there's always underlying almost every question that we receive over time is about distrust in government or distrust in numbers, or trust in government, trust in numbers.

Right.

There have been cuts to USDA.

There are some saying that that is going to be an issue moving forward.

Is it question one and two?

What are the ramifications of fewer USDA employees?

>> Well, you know, I think this comes back to what your first topic was on risk.

We have a heightened risk situation.

We don't know the ultimate answer yet.

We have a heightened risk situation.

Yes, there will be less reliability to the numbers.

And when you look at the USDA, I think, you know, granted, I think the the largest cuts, the largest number of people were cut from the Forest Service.

But percentage wise, the largest number of cuts have been in the NASS.

You know, the department that we really count on as far as gathering data from what's growing in the field.

I think the second largest almost right behind it is rural development.

So things that really affect the farm sector have been the ones, percentage wise, cut the hardest.

Their.

Yes.

Over time, you know, ultimately you can see a lot of.

Particularly with the ngas that AI is going to replace those jobs probably permanently.

But boy, you know, we're in the infancy there.

So, I mean, just like back going back to the January final production figures, I think a lot of people were in disbelief that they made those larger reductions, revisions.

And that could be the norm we have to deal with in the future is we're going to see large revisions happen month to month or quarter to quarter in our figures, which, you know, just throws that much more risk uncertainty into the marketplace and probably creates greater volatility, both good and bad.

>> So I know you love a good pop culture reference, but we go back to 1983 to Trading Places.

Okay.

The importance for having the government reports.

>> Sure.

>> Because they're there to protect the farmers so that they have a seat at the table.

They have the information.

Is that how I understand it?

>> Well, truly, when you really go back even 100 years before that 1850s, 1860s, I should say Abraham Lincoln is the one who founded the U.S.

Department of Agriculture specifically.

So farmers could have better information that the commercial interests already had, so made it publicly available to anybody out there.

So, I mean, that was truly the mission of the USDA.

And at this point in time, we're really reducing their capacity to deliver that.

Private people will still have information.

>> So history is also on the line right now with some of our questions this week.

Okay.

That that came and I apologize before we get started, Mark, in Kansas, I already asked your show or your question on the main program, but I want to start with Joel in Oklahoma.

For Dan, with no end in sight in the conflict with Iran, what effect will sustained high oil and fuel prices have on commodity markets?

>> You know, and again, I guess it would be nice to have the crystal ball to say when this will end.

You know, it's certainly not going to be a week or a couple month type of an in fact, it's going to have an impact for at least six months, if not a year.

Even if things ended up right now.

I mean, we've we've just disrupted the supply channel so much that it can't correct.

You can't fix that in any kind of a short order, you know, will it you know, here again too, I mean, if prices adjust, you know, let's say we take corn prices up enough to compensate for higher fuel prices or higher fertilizer prices, you know, ultimately won't have any effect other than, you know, you're going to be producing those bushels for a little bit higher price and rewarded for it.

But your net return is probably not going to be significantly better than it was a year ago.

So it's I don't see it other than, yes, it may shift some things around.

We might look at how we what crops we're producing.

And again, as we talked just a bit ago, it could maybe start reigniting some of the interest and demand in renewable fuels.

But boy, it's going to have to really extend on for that to be the case.

>> So it's where a producer gets in that frustrated moment.

They keep banging their head against the wall.

We think we're ahead here.

Yeah, but instead we have to we run into a wall over there.

>> You know, I think one of the sad realities of the production side of agriculture or the farm sector agriculture here right now is we don't really have a long lasting change in any demand out there.

And again, that's what it really takes to give you give you sustained rallies.

We'll we'll get activity, we'll get advances because of weather, weather concerns or supply shortages here and there, or disruptions.

But those are not really sustainable.

And, you know, we have not reached that point where we have identified what's going to be the new demand engine that carries us out of the current malaise we have in the farm sector.

And that may not come for another 5 or 6, maybe even ten years.

>> Oh, years.

>> Okay.

>> Because I was going to go with a more current thing right now for our next question.

Bradley and Nebraska, what are the chances of a weather rally this spring?

Do producers want to take profits on these corn hedges or let them ride?

Weather being my transition in this.

>> Question, you know, my bias on that is, no, don't take profit.

Let them ride.

Add to them as they move higher.

Unless you're 100% sold out.

And even if you're 100% sold out, maybe you start looking at 2027, you know this again, coming back to the point that weather related type market rallies are short term in nature, and you need to reward them when they come.. >> And let's look no closer, no farther than last year.

Drought.

Drought.

Drought.

Oh, never mind.

Trendline.

>> Sure, sure.

>> So, I mean, you can have this big talk and this big widespread planting delays.

Too early to have any of those impact on the market.

>> Too early at this point in time.

Certainly, certainly.

You know, actually, when you look at the the planning as of last week, we were pretty much average.

>> Correct.

When you look at the I mean, it's anecdotal, sorry, of the, you know, the farmer who's delayed not.

Yes, the government numbers do say that we are above the five year pace.

One last question.

It's Keith and North Dakota.

That's one of the places where there have been delays.

Is the disruption in goods or prices by the Iran conflict more of a concern for the current crop year or subsequent crop years?

Tying your year question.

>> The if we're saying current crop year, meaning the crop, we're about ready to put in the ground, I think it's more pertaining to that crop.

I mean, that's going to be relatively short term in nature unless this really drags on to a multi year type of event.

>> So I've asked this the last couple of weeks of people in your seat.

Are you doing any 27 work right now.

>> You've been watching it you know have not gotten anxious to it.

But I do think if we continue up and and do extend particularly corn prices higher into the summer months here, then absolutely.

I think you want to be doing 27 work and maybe even from 28.

>> I want to do one last thing here.

Corn.

We mentioned December corn.

We're sniffing $5.

What happens if we somehow get up to that here in the next couple of weeks?

>> Well, I think you reward the $5 range if it happens to punch through there, you might get another 5%, maybe five and a quarter.

And I think you you reward that even more, even more heavily if you have concerns about, you know, boy, we could get carried away with a summer rally.

You know, probably the only way to address that would be with some type of a call spread.

So all right, protect yourself if you if you feel that need.

>> So thank you Dan good to see you as always.

>> My pleasure to be here.

Thank you.

>> Appreciate the trip.

You not many people in the field on your drive know.

>> I think I saw one tractor all the way out.

There was there was one guy was a planner up on an overpass.

It looked like he was stuck for some reason.

So I don't know.

>> On the overpass.

>> On the overpass.

So it didn't look.

>> That might be mechanical.

Not not mud.

>> Exactly.

Yeah.

>> Either way, it's tough to have delays this time of year.

Absolutely.

Good to see you Dan.

Thank you.

Thank you Dan Hueber everyone.

Next week we are going to talk about that thinner winter snowpack and what it means for producers out West as well as everybody else.

We'll also have the commodity market analysis with Arlan Suderman.

Thank you so much for joining us.

Have a great week.